News

“In a survey conducted by research firm CensusAtSchool, 59% of 24,000 students surveyed see New Zealand All Blacks lose the next World Cup.

CensusAtSchool research firm found that 59% of New Zealand children who responded to a survey on the next World Cup saw the All Blacks lose in the final. 81% of young people aged 8-17 years, are nevertheless partners Richie McCaw to qualify for the final. These surprising results contrast with the optimism of their parents. They are confident and think that 77% of New Zealand will lift the Webb Ellis trophy for the first time since 1987.”

Source: Rugby 365

Thousands of New Zealand children believe the All Blacks will make the Rugby World Cup final – but more than half expect them to blow it once again when they get there.

An online educational survey, CensusAtSchool, predicted the All Blacks will be waiting yet another four years to get their hands on what has been their most elusive prize.

Eighty-three per cent of the young respondents expected the All Blacks to make the final on October 23, but only 41 per cent thought they would win it.

This is in contrast to their parents, who are optimistic the All Blacks will secure the Webb Ellis Cup for the first time since 1987.

A Herald/DigiPoll survey in January found that 70 per cent of adults thought the All Blacks would triumph.

A UMR poll in April found even more confidence, with 77 per cent of adults sure of a NZ victory.

CensusAtSchool co-director Rachel Cunliffe, a University of Auckland-trained statistician, said the children’s results were “a bit of a surprise”.

“We had expected that as children and young people are often such ardent rugby fans, they would be talking the All Blacks right up.”

Ms Cunliffe said the students’ verdict was also remarkably consistent across geographical areas, age and sex.

Of the 83 per cent who thought the All Blacks would make the final, 35 per cent picked South Africa to be their opponents, ahead of the 30 per cent who chose Australia.

Of those predicting an All Black win in the final, 25 per cent picked a margin of fewer than five points.

Former All Black great Stu Wilson said the results were a surprise and also a bit disappointing.

“I saw over 100 kids of all ages running around in the mud on the North Shore on Saturday night and if you asked any one of them who will win the World Cup they would all say the All Blacks – that’s a rugby environment,” said Wilson.

“It’s still in our DNA. I don’t care what the league and netball or cricket people say, rugby is still our our number one sport … It [the survey] surprises me and disappoints me, to be completely honest.”

Wilson said the All Blacks had dominated the world rankings for the past decade, something the children surveyed might have missed.

“If their memory goes that far back and it reflects on their decision about whether the All Blacks can win or not, that’s sad – they don’t understand the world rankings and how good we are.”

Veteran rugby commentator Keith Quinn said the results were intriguing and showed children’s awareness of NZ’s rugby history and the tag the All Blacks had possibly earned as chokers.

“They know their subject obviously and are aware that winning the Rugby World Cup is not ever a foregone conclusion,” he said.

“I feel that the adult populace of New Zealand back in 1987 believed that the win over France in the first RWC was just affirmation of what we had felt for decades about how great New Zealand rugby consistently was … and that we would go on to probably win it every four years.”

Quinn thought South Africa should be favoured if they reach the final.

“The World Cup final has always been a grim, tough game, won by serious ‘let’s not lose’ rugby,” he said.

“South Africa with its big pack and tactically aware halfback and first-five are best at that sort of game, with excellent goalkicking and dropkicking experts too. They have won their only two finals by not scoring a try.”

“Maybe the kids know that too?”

The survey ran in schools from Kaitaia to Invercargill in May and June and involved 24,000 students aged 8 to 17.

Source: Star Canterbury

A sobering prediction for this year’s Rugby World Cup has the All Blacks making the final but losing at the last hurdle.

And that’s come from a group of armchair experts not normally known for their pessimism.

A survey has found that 24,000 schoolchildren predict an All Blacks v South Africa final – but believe the South Africans will lift the Webb Ellis trophy at the final whistle.

The CensusAtSchool survey, which ran from May 2 – June 10 in schools from Kaitaia to Invercargill, involved students aged 8 to 17.

Of the 83% of the students who predicted the All Blacks would make the final on October 23, just 41% thought they would win.

CensusAtSchool co-director Rachel Cunliffe, a University of Auckland-trained statistician, said the students’ results were a bit of a surprise.

“We had expected that as children and young people are often such ardent rugby fans, they’d be talking the All Blacks right up,” she said.

The students’ verdict was also remarkably consistent across geographical areas, age and sex, said Cunliffe.

Of those who think the All Blacks will make the final, 35% are picking South Africa to be the opponent and 30% Australia.

Of the 41% predicting an All Blacks win, 25% thought there would be a winning margin of under five points.

This is the fifth time New Zealand has held CensusAtSchool, which is also run in Australia, Canada, Ireland, Japan, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Source: TVNZ

Wendell wrote ‘Pretty much all the honest truth telling in the world is done by children’ which could prove ghastly for the All Blacks at this year’s Rugby World Cup.

A survey has found that 24,000 schoolchildren predict an All Blacks versus South Africa final, with the South Africans taking home the Webb Ellis trophy at the final whistle.

The findings came from the CensusAtSchool survey which polled kids in schools from Kaitaia to Invercargill, between the ages of eight and 17.

Optimistically, 83 per cent of the students predicted the All Blacks would make the final.
But only 41 per cent thought they would win.

Of those who think the All Blacks will make the final, 35 per cent think they’ll play South Africa, while 30 per cent say it will be Australia.

CensusAtSchool co-director Rachel Cunliffe, a University of Auckland-trained statistician, said the students’ results were a bit of a surprise.

“We had expected that as children and young people are often such ardent rugby fans, they’d be talking the All Blacks right up,” she said.

CensusAtSchool also runs in Australia, Canada, Ireland, Japan, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Source: MSN

CensusAtSchool’s RWC results were discussed on Newstalk ZB today. Story no longer available online.

More than half of 24,000 school children polled in an online survey believe the All Blacks will lose in the final of this year’s Rugby World Cup.
The survey conducted by CensusAtSchool showed that 83 percent of respondents believed the All Blacks would make the final but only 41 percent thought they would win.

The pessimism of the students, aged 8 to 17, contrasts with the optimism of their parents. A survey in April showed 77 percent of adults are confident New Zealand will win the Cup for the first time since 1987.

Rachel Cunliffe, a co-director of CensusAtSchool, said the results were “a bit of a surprise. We had expected that as children and young people are often such ardent rugby fans, they would be talking the All Blacks right up.”

Source: Taiwan News

CensusAtSchool made the front page of today’s New Zealand Herald (photo above) for the Rugby World Cup question results!

You can read the story online:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=10733478

The original press release about the results:

http://www.censusatschool.org.nz/about/media-information/all-blacks/

More than half of 24 000 school children polled in an online survey believe the All Blacks will lose in the final of this year’s Rugby World Cup.

The survey conducted by CensusAtSchool showed that 83 per cent of respondents believed the All Blacks would make the final but only 41 per cent thought they would win.

The pessimism of the students, aged 8 to 17, contrasts with the optimism of their parents. A survey in April showed 77 per cent of adults are confident New Zealand will win the Cup for the first time since 1987.

Rachel Cunliffe, a co-director of CensusAtSchool, said the results were “a bit of a surprise. We had expected that as children and young people are often such ardent rugby fans, they would be talking the All Blacks right up.”

Source: Super Sport

Twenty-four thousand young people have disconcerting news for the All Blacks – they predict the team will make the Rugby World Cup final, but won’t take the trophy.

The sobering assessment – of which we couldn’t possibly use the word ‘choke’ – has emerged from the online educational survey CensusAtSchool, which ran from May 2-June 10 in schools from Kaitaia to Invercargill, involving students aged 8 to 17.

A total of 83% of the students predicted the All Blacks would make the final on October 23, but just 41% thought they would win.

This is in stark contrast to their parents, who are decidedly more optimistic. A New Zealand Herald/Digipoll survey in January found that 70% of a general sample of adults thought the All Blacks would triumph. A UMR poll in April, which surveyed confirmed adult rugby fans, found 77% confident the All Blacks would win.

“The students’ results were a bit of a surprise,” says CensusAtSchool co-director Rachel Cunliffe, a University of Auckland-trained statistician.

“We had expected that as children and young people are often such ardent rugby fans, they’d be talking the All Blacks right up.” The students’ verdict was also remarkably consistent across geographical areas, age and sex, says Cunliffe.

Of the 83% who think the All Blacks will make the final, 35% are picking South Africa to be the opponent and 30% Australia.

Of the 41% predicting an All Black win, 25% thought there would be a winning margin of under 5 points.

CensusAtSchool is hosted by the Department of Statistics at the University of Auckland in association with Statistics New Zealand and the Ministry of Education. This is the fifth time New Zealand has held CensusAtSchool, which is also run in Australia, Canada, Ireland, Japan, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States. The countries share some questions so comparisons can be made, but the rest reflect New Zealand students’ interests.

Students were supervised by their teachers in class as they answered 31 online questions about themselves in English or Māori. Some questions required some practical weighing and measuring skills such as their arm-span measurement and the weight of their schoolbags. Others sought opinions, like their favourite subject and television programme.

“CensusAtSchool is about showing in a practical and real-life way the value of statistics in everyday life,” says Cunliffe. “The data is now being analysed, and will be sent back to schools so students and teachers can analyse it together, which provides more learning opportunities”.

“CensusAtSchool allows students to get a unique view of themselves – and we all get insights into New Zealand childhoods that we couldn’t get in any other way.”

Further CensusAtSchool insights will be released in coming weeks as data is analysed, says Cunliffe.

Almost 24,000 students have taken part

Thanks so much to all those who have taken part during the official data collection period! We really appreciate you getting on board.

If you haven’t taken part so far but would like to, good news:
We are keeping the survey open until the end of the school year.

We’ll be sending out an update soon about everyone’s data becoming available, but in the meantime we wanted to tell you about a new blog the Department of Statistics has launched:

http://www.statschat.org.nz

I think you’ll find lots of food for thought there about current statistics in the media and links to good resources. Subscribe to the site or bookmark it.