This standard is derived from Achievement Objective S8.4, Investigate situations that involve elements of chance.

- calculating probabilities of independent, combined and conditional events

Students should be able to:

- Understand true probability vs model estimates vs experimental estimates
- Randomness, independence mutually exclusive events, conditional probability
- Probability distribution tables and graphs
- Two way tables, probability tress, venn diagrams

This standard requires students to understand the relationship between true probability, model estimates, and experimental estimates.

## Achievement standard and Guides

- Achievement Standard 3.13 (AS 91585)
- NZQA Exemplars, assessments and reports
- Assessment Specifications (AS91585) 2016
- Moderator’s Newsletter
- Key Ideas in Probability
- Senior Secondary Guide AO S8-4
- Glossary of Statistics terms
- Level 3 Statistics Formulae 2013

## FAQ

## Resources for teaching and learning

### Key Resources

**Having fun with Probability Concepts and Solving Problems****Risk****Hands on activities for teaching risk****Higher level communication for Scholarship and Excellence****Statistical surprises and stories - Probability Louise Addison****Probability NCEA Level 1: Using TinkerPlots to aid the understanding of uncertainty****Using Tinkerplots for probability modelling**

### Teacher Preparation

**Response to the 2014 NZQA external assessments****Risk****Statistics NCEA external assessments 2013: feedback from NZSA Education Committee****Some probability teaching ideas****Apply probability concepts in solving problems****Deterministic and Probabilistic Models****Venn Diagrams****Understanding true probability, model estimates, and experimental estimates**

### Classroom Activities

**Hands on activities for teaching risk****Visualising chance: A pilot study at the introductory level (Senior secondary/Tertiary)****What can I do with a degree in Statistics?****Using the Eikosogram to teach conditional and joint probability****Analysing Student Attendance Data****Two way table practice****Nine weird tips for adding awesomesauce to Level 2 & 3 Stats!****Statistical surprises and stories - Probability Louise Addison****Some probability teaching ideas****Interactive Probability quiz****Conditional Probability Visualisation****Understanding Probability****Classic problems in Probability****Canterbury Mathematics Association 2014 Statistics Teachers Day****Senior Secondary Guides - Teaching and Learning Activities****Calculating probabilities of independent, combined and conditional events**

### Sourcing Materials

### Curriculum and Assessment